Adrian Kavanagh’s prediction of where the five seats in Louth will go at the next General Election
Labour and Fine Gael could be set to lose seats in the next General Election in Louth.
That’s the view of the country’s leading constituency analyst Adrian Kavanagh, who has been making predictions about what might happen in the next election – scheduled to take place sometime in the next 15 months.
Writing in The Irish Independent, Mr Kavanagh said that Fianna Fáil were “well placed” to retain the seat that is currently held by Seamus Kirk. The former Ceann Comhairle will retire from politics when the current Dáil’s term ends with Kavanagh predicting that one of Declan Breathnach, Liam Reilly or Anthony Moore could gain.
He feels Ged Nash’s Labour seat is “highly vulnerable” and predicted that Fine Gael “could also lose one of their seats” with both Fergus O’Dowd and Peter Fitzpatrick at risk.
He expects Sinn Féin to claim a second seat with Imelda Munster and Tomás Sharkey predicted to be strong running mates for party leader, Gerry Adams.
While he feels Sinn Fein could go close to taking three seats, he feels the third will go to an independent candidate with Maeve Anna Yore and Mark Dearey of the Green Party predicted as potential beneficiaries.
While Gerry Adams topped the poll in Louth in 2011 he was the biggest loser in the first opinion poll of 2015 yesterday.
The Red C survey found that his personal support had fallen by 7% to 27% – making him the most unpopular leader in the country.
